The niche through time: Considering phenology and demographic stages in plant distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to infer species-environment relationships, predict spatial distributions, and characterise species’ environmental niches. While the importance of space and spatial scales is widely acknowledged in SDM applications, temporal components of the niche are rarely addressed. We discuss how phenology and demographic stages affect model inference in plant SDMs. Ignoring conspicuousness and timing of phenological stages may bias niche estimates through increased observer bias, while ignoring stand age may bias niche estimates through temporal mismatches with environmental variables, especially during times of rapid global warming. We present different methods to consider phenology and demographic stages in plant SDMs, including the selection of causal, spatiotemporally explicit predictors, and the calibration of stage-specific SDMs. Based on a case study with citizen science data, we illustrate how spatiotemporal SDMs provide deeper insights on..., We conducted a keyword-based search in the Web of Science to quantify how often temporal components related to phenology and demographic stages are explicitly considered in plant SDMs. A full list of keywords is provided in the Supporting Information Table S1. We used a nested set of keywords to identify all studies that mentioned SDMs (or common synonyms), were focused on plants, and were listing relevant keywords related to phenology or to demographic stages, respectively. The search was carried out on 5-Oct-2023 and was restricted to English-language journal articles in the period 1945-2022 (no studies using SDMs were published before that start year). Overall, we found more than 40,000 articles mentioning SDM and over 10,000 articles in our refined search for plant SDMs, with a strong increase in the number of articles over time. Among these, phenology (or related search terms) was mentioned in 970 articles and demographic stages (or related terms) in 1188 articles, each averaging c..., , # The niche through time: considering phenology and demographic stages in plant distribution models

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.sn02v6xct](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.sn02v6xct)

## Description of the data and file structure

**Columns from WoS (Web of Science) search – these are identical in both excel sheets**

These columns are the standard columns provided as WoS search output. If the entries contain \"n/a\", then no information was provided by WoS because those items are not applicable. For example, a journal article does not have any entries for book authors.

| **Column** | **Explanation** |
| :------------------------- | :---------------------------------------- |
| Publication Type | Type of publication: J .. Journal article |
| Authors | Authors |
| Book Authors | Book Authors |
| Book Editors | Book Editors ...

物种分布模型（Species distribution models, SDMs）被广泛用于推断物种与环境的关联、预测空间分布特征，并刻画物种的生态位。尽管在SDMs的应用中，空间与空间尺度的重要性已得到广泛认可，但生态位的时间维度却极少被纳入考量。本文探讨了物候与种群统计阶段如何影响植物SDMs的模型推断：若忽略物候阶段的可见性与时间节点，可能会因观测偏差加剧而使生态位估算产生偏倚；而忽略林分年龄，则可能因与环境变量的时间错配导致生态位估算偏倚，在全球快速变暖的时期尤为如此。本文提出了在植物SDMs中纳入物候与种群统计阶段的多种方法，包括选取因果性、时空显式预测因子，以及校准阶段特异性SDMs。基于一项使用公民科学数据的案例研究，本文阐释了时空SDMs如何提供更为深入的研究洞察…… 我们于2023年10月5日在Web of Science中开展了基于关键词的检索，以量化植物SDMs研究中明确考虑物候与种群统计阶段相关时间维度的频次。完整关键词列表详见补充信息表S1。我们采用嵌套式关键词集，以筛选出所有提及SDMs（或其常见同义词）、聚焦于植物、且分别包含与物候或种群统计阶段相关关键词的研究。本次检索限定于1945年至2022年间发表的英文期刊论文（该起始年份之前尚无使用SDMs的相关研究发表）。总体而言，我们共检索到超过40000篇提及SDM的论文，经细化筛选的植物SDMs相关论文超过10000篇，且论文数量随时间呈显著增长趋势。其中，970篇论文提及物候（或相关检索术语），1188篇提及种群统计阶段（或相关术语），平均……
# 时间维度下的生态位：植物分布模型中纳入物候与种群统计阶段

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.sn02v6xct](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.sn02v6xct)

## 数据与文件结构说明

**Web of Science检索结果列项——两份Excel表格中的列项完全一致**

这些列项为Web of Science检索输出的标准列项。若条目标注“n/a”，则代表Web of Science未提供相关信息，因对应项不适用于当前文献类型。例如，期刊论文不会包含图书作者相关条目。

| **列项名称** | **解释** |
| :------------------------- | :---------------------------------------- |
| 出版物类型 | 出版物类型：J… 期刊文章 |
| 作者 | 作者 |
| 图书作者 | 图书作者 |
| 图书编辑 | 图书编辑 ... |