The meat market in Brazil: a partial equilibrium model

A partial equilibrium model for the meat market is fit to Brazilian data by three stages least squares. The model is consistent with the data and may be used for simulation purposes. In this context we compare model simulations for the near future with the OECD/ Aglink outlook. To illustrate using the model for simulations in policy assessments, we investigate the effect of a relative increase in corn price on the poultry and pork markets, coeteris paribus.本研究采用三阶段最小二乘法（Three Stages Least Squares），将肉类市场局部均衡模型（partial equilibrium model）拟合至巴西数据集。该模型与数据集适配性良好，可用于模拟分析。在此研究框架下，我们将模型对近期的模拟结果与经济合作与发展组织（OECD）/AgLink展望报告进行对比。为演示该模型在政策评估模拟中的应用，我们在其余条件不变（coeteris paribus）的前提下，探究了玉米价格相对上涨对禽肉与猪肉市场的影响。