An analysis of the novice motorcyclist crashes in Taiwan

Motorcycles comprised over 60% of motor vehicles in Taiwan. There were still many motorcycle crashes in Taiwan, especially among young riders. This study investigated the characteristics of novice motorcyclist crashes in Taiwan over the period January 2011 to December 2016. Various risk factors affecting the severity of novice motorcyclist crashes, such as the rider characteristics, licensing conditions, and the environment, were examined. To model the count data with multiple crash severities, several regression models were considered. The multinomial logit (MNL) model, ordered logit (OL) model, and partial proportional odds (PPO) model were chosen and investigated for the relationships between the severity of novice motorcyclist crashes and potential risk factors. The results showed that the novice rider who was underage or unlicensed had a higher probability of a fatal crash. Male sex, helmet use, drinking, college student, frontal impact, urban or dry road, and daytime all played significant roles in novice motorcyclist crashes. Taiwan traffic safety needs further policy adjustments and public education toward novice motorcycle crashes. Adequate driving training and providing a user-friendly environment for novice riders could help. Taiwan should consider graduated driver licensing systems for skill-building and riding supervision for new motorcyclists.台湾地区机车占机动车总量的六成以上，机车交通事故频发，年轻骑行者更是事故高发群体。 本研究针对2011年1月至2016年12月间台湾地区新手机车骑手（novice motorcyclist）的交通事故特征展开调研，同时探究影响新手机车骑手交通事故严重程度的各类风险因素，涵盖骑手自身特征、驾照申领条件及道路环境等维度。 针对多等级事故严重程度的计数数据建模需求，本研究考量了多种回归模型，最终选定多项logit（MNL）模型、有序logit（OL）模型与部分比例优势（PPO）模型，用以剖析新手机车骑手交通事故严重程度与潜在风险因素间的关联。 研究结果显示，未成年或未持有有效驾照的新手机车骑手，发生致死性交通事故的概率更高；男性性别、未佩戴头盔、酒驾、大学生身份、正面碰撞、城市或干燥路面以及日间骑行，均对新手机车骑手交通事故存在显著影响。 台湾地区交通安全政策与公众教育仍需针对新手机车交通事故问题进一步优化；为新手机车骑手提供充足的骑行培训与友好型骑行环境，可有效降低事故风险。台湾地区可考虑为新晋机车骑手推行分级驾照申领制度，以强化骑行技能培养与骑行监管。