Data from: Climate interacts with anthropogenic drivers to determine extirpation dynamics

Theoretical studies suggest that the dynamics of a species’ range during a period of climate change depends upon the existence and interplay of various ecological and evolutionary processes. Here we tested how anthropogenic pressures contribute to climate-mediated extirpation patterns of 32 freshwater fish species over the last 20 years. We contrasted two extreme cases to determine whether extirpations were governed by patterns of climate exposure, assuming full adaptation of species to local climate, or instead by the interplay between climate exposure and the distance from the centroid of species’ climatic niches, assuming a fixed niche, and asked whether anthropogenic disturbances interact with these climatic drivers. We found strong support for the fixed niche hypothesis, but showed that species-specific local adaptation to climate may also be important in determining extirpation dynamics. We also demonstrated that anthropogenic disturbance acted in concert with climate, ultimately determining population changes. Our results add novel evidence that unravelling the direct links between range dynamics and climate requires a multifaceted treatment, and that accounting for the cumulative effects of anthropogenic pressures deserves special attention in the context of climate change.理论研究表明，气候变化时期物种种群分布范围的动态变化，取决于各类生态与进化过程的存在及其相互作用。本研究针对过去20年间32种淡水鱼类的气候介导局部灭绝（extirpation）模式，探究人为压力如何影响该过程。我们设置了两种极端对比情景，以判断局部灭绝究竟由何种机制主导：一种假设物种已完全适应当地气候，此时灭绝由气候暴露模式决定；另一种假设物种气候生态位（climatic niche）固定不变，此时灭绝由气候暴露与物种气候生态体质心距离的相互作用共同驱动。此外我们还探究了人为扰动是否与这些气候驱动因子存在交互效应。本研究结果强烈支持固定生态位假说，但同时表明物种特异性的气候局部适应，在调控局部灭绝动态中同样发挥重要作用。我们还证实，人为扰动会与气候因子协同作用，最终决定种群的存续动态。本研究结果提供了新的证据：厘清分布范围动态与气候之间的直接关联，需采用多维度的研究范式；而在气候变化背景下，考量人为压力的累积效应值得给予特别关注。