Structural Primary Balance (%GDP) 2014

The database allows estimating structural fiscal balances for 20 countries in the region under different assumptions regarding the output gap and commodity structural prices. It is a unique database of its kind since: 1) It takes into consideration the distinct responsiveness of different types of revenues to changes in the output gap: In order to adjust for the impact of the business cycle on revenues, we calculate individual elasticities for each source of revenue (i.e. direct taxes, indirect taxes, revenues from non-renewable resources, etc.). Since the different types of revenues in the region have different sensitivities to changes in the output gap, this disaggregated approach allows for a more fine-tuned adjustment. 2) It includes estimations of SFBs based on output gaps’ projections available in “real time”. In addition to giving estimations of the actual SFBs, we provide with estimations of the SFBs that would have resulted should the projections on output gaps available to policymakers at the time of designing fiscal policy (data in “real time”) have been correct. This is in contrast to much of the existing work on structural fiscal balances that makes only an “ex post” analysis using actual and revised information on the output gaps. 3) It allows assessing the response of fiscal policy to the business cycle. We provide with measures of the fiscal impulse, assessing not only the actual but also the intentional fiscal stance, as well as the degree of procyclicality of fiscal policy.<br><br><b>Click here to access the data: https://mydata.iadb.org/idb/dataset/3itg-avtz</b></br></br>

本数据库可针对该区域20个国家，基于产出缺口与大宗商品结构性价格的不同假设，估算其结构性财政余额（Structural Fiscal Balance, SFB）。本数据库为同类型中的独有资源，原因如下：1） 充分考量不同收入类型对产出缺口变动的差异化响应弹性：为剔除经济周期对财政收入的影响，我们针对每一类收入来源（直接税、间接税、不可再生资源收入等）分别计算弹性系数。鉴于该区域内不同收入类型对产出缺口变动的敏感程度存在差异，这种分项拆解的测算方法可实现更精细化的调整。2） 纳入基于“实时”可用产出缺口预测的SFB估算：除提供当期实际SFB估算结果外，我们还提供了模拟估算值——即若政策制定者在制定财政政策时所使用的实时产出缺口预测数据准确无误，最终将得到的SFB结果。这与现有多数结构性财政余额相关研究仅采用事后分析、使用经修正后的实际产出缺口数据的做法形成鲜明对比。3） 可用于评估财政政策对经济周期的响应情况：我们提供了财政冲击测算指标，不仅可评估实际财政政策效果，还可测算其政策意图导向，同时能够衡量财政政策的顺周期性程度。<br><br><b>点击此处获取数据：https://mydata.iadb.org/idb/dataset/3itg-avtz</b></br></br>