Financiamento de campanhas e desempenho eleitoral das mulheres nas eleições brasileiras (1998-2020)

ABSTRACT This paper presents a longitudinal analysis of institutional innovations in mechanisms to promote gender equality in the Brazilian electoral arena in the last three decades. The three waves of creation of legal instruments and the three adaptive reactions in party strategies are analyzed. Empirical evidence from the general and municipal elections of 1998 and 2020 was mobilized to analyze the evolution of female electoral participation in four dimensions: candidacies, campaign expenses, votes and seats won. The results show that the first two waves of institutional innovations that introduced quotas for reserved seats (1995-1997) and the mandatory filing of female candidates (2009) had their effectiveness mitigated by conservative reactions of party strategies. Only the third wave (2015-2018), arising from the Judiciary, which prohibited business fundingand established gender proportionality in the distribution of party resources, had significant impacts on female representation. Yet, even the effects of these last innovations were mitigated by adaptive strategies of parties that aimed to maintain the status quo of a predominantly male representation. These strategies have hampered the progress of promoting gender equality in the electoral arena, making it slower and more gradual than what is advocated by legal instruments.

摘要：本研究对近三十年来巴西选举领域促进性别平等的机制制度创新展开纵向分析。本研究同时分析了三类法律工具创设浪潮与政党战略的三次适应性调整。本研究借助1998年与2020年全国及市级选举的实证数据，从参选资格、竞选经费、得票情况与当选席位四个维度分析女性选举参与的演变历程。研究结果显示，前两波制度创新分别为1995至1997年的预留席位配额制度，以及2009年的女性候选人强制备案制度，但其实施效果均因政党战略的保守性反应而被削弱。仅第三波制度创新（2015至2018年）由司法机构推动，其内容为禁止企业资助选举，并确立政党资源分配的性别比例原则，该波创新对女性代表席位产生了显著影响。然而，即便此类最新制度创新的实施效果，仍被旨在维持男性主导代表格局的政党适应性战略所削弱。此类战略阻碍了选举领域性别平等促进工作的推进，使得性别平等的实现进程较法律工具所倡导的更为缓慢且渐进。