Replication data for: Substituting the End for the Whole: Why Voters Respond Primarily to the Election-Year Economy

According to numerous studies, the election-year economy influences presidential election results far more than cumulative growth throughout the term. Here we describe a series of surveys and experiments that point to an intriguing explanation for voter behavior that runs contrary to the standard explanations political science has offered, but one that accords with a large psychological literature. Voters, we find, actually intend to judge presidents on cumulative growth. However, since that characteristic is not readily available to them, voters inadvertently substitute election-year performance because it is more easily accessible. This “end-heuristic” explanation for voters’ election-year emphasis reflects a general tendency for people to simplify retrospective assessments by substituting conditions at the end for the whole. The end heuristic explanation also suggests a remedy, a way to align voters’ actions with their intentions. Providing people with the attribute they are seeking—cumulative growth—eliminates the election-year emphasis.诸多研究表明，总统选举年的经济状况对选举结果的影响，远甚于任期内的累计经济增长。本文介绍了一系列调研与实验，其结果为选民行为提供了一项颇具启发性的解释：该解释与政治学领域的标准范式相悖，却契合大量心理学研究的结论。我们发现，选民本欲以任期内累计经济增长作为评判总统的依据，但由于该指标难以直接便捷地获取，选民便会下意识地用更易获得的选举年经济表现取而代之。这种针对选民重视选举年经济现象的“末端启发式（end-heuristic）”解释，实则反映了人类的普遍认知倾向：人们常会以末端情境替代整体情况，以此简化回溯性评价过程。该末端启发式解释同时提供了一种校正路径，可使选民的行为与其原本意图达成一致：只要向选民提供其真正追寻的指标——任期内累计经济增长，便可消解其对选举年经济表现的过度关注。