Demographic characteristics and projections of ethnic minority and religious groups

Time-series dataset of the demographic characteristics of the UK ethnic minority populations and religious groups up to 2006, to study ethnic and religious demographic diversity and its impact upon future population size, age-structure and the ethnic and religious composition of the UK population. This dataset is compiled from various existing data sources: 2001 Census, Labour Force Survey (LFS) and International Passenger Survey (IPS) data. In the absence of vital statistics by ethnic groups, indirect methods were used to estimate vital rates, including the ‘Own Child’ method applied to LFS household data to derive fertility estimates of ethnic and religious groups. Building on previous work, fertility rates of ethnic groups were produced up to 2006, distinguishing between UK-born and foreign-born populations. Migration rates were based on ONS International Migration Statistics (using IPS data), LFS and census data and projected on various assumptions. The results served population projections to mid-century and beyond of the main ethnic minority populations, including mixed populations, and using cohort-component methods. Furthermore, estimates of fertility rates for the major religious (and non-religious) groups were produced. Datasets include: (1) Calculated fertility estimates for all women aged 15 to 49 in the UK, by 5 years age group, by ethnic group, religion and place of birth (UK/non-UK), based on LFS data; (2) Data on mixed children by ethnic group of the mother; (3) Data on country of birth by ethnic group (all populations); (4) Data on immigration flow by country of origin. <p>This project aims to analyse ethnic and religious demographic diversity, to investigate the potential for convergence of trends over time and its impact upon future population size, age-structure and the ethnic and religious composition of the UK population. Existing statistical sources (especially the 2001 Census, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Longitudinal Survey) will be used to produce time-series of the demographic characteristics of the ethnic minority populations and religious groups up to 2006. In the absence of vital statistics by ethnic groups, the Own Child method applied to LFS and census data will be used to derive fertility estimates of ethnic and religious groups. The results will serve population projections to mid-century and beyond of the main ethnic minority populations, including mixed populations, and using cohort-component methods. Migration rates will be based on ONS International Migration Statistics, LFS and census data and projected on various assumptions. Furthermore, estimates of fertility rates and other demographic information for the major religious (and non-religious) groups will be produced with a view to making preliminary projections of their future size. The potential convergence of the demographic characteristics of ethnic and religious groups will be analysed, including mixed unions as an indicator for integration. </p>本数据集为截至2006年的英国少数族裔人口与宗教群体人口统计特征时序数据集，旨在研究族裔与宗教人口多样性，及其对英国未来人口规模、年龄结构、族裔与宗教构成的影响。本数据集整合自多类现有数据源：2001年人口普查（2001 Census）、劳动力调查（Labour Force Survey, LFS）以及国际旅客调查（International Passenger Survey, IPS）数据。鉴于缺乏按族裔分组的生命统计数据，研究采用间接方法估算生命率，包括将“自有子女法”应用于LFS住户数据，以推导族裔与宗教群体的生育估算值。基于前期研究成果，本数据集生成了截至2006年的族裔群体生育率数据，区分了英国本土出生与海外出生人口。移民率测算基于英国国家统计局（Office for National Statistics, ONS）国际移民统计数据（采用IPS数据）、LFS及人口普查数据，并基于多种假设开展预测。研究结果依托队列要素法，用于预测主要少数族裔群体（包括混合族裔群体）至本世纪中叶及以后的人口规模。此外，本数据集还生成了主要宗教（及无宗教）群体的生育率估算值。 数据集包含以下内容： (1) 基于LFS数据生成的英国15至49岁全体女性的生育估算值，按5年年龄组、族裔群体、宗教信仰及出生地点（英国本土/非英国本土）分组； (2) 按母亲族裔分组的混合族裔子女数据； (3) 按族裔分组的全体人口出生国家数据； (4) 按来源国分组的移民流入数据。 本项目旨在分析族裔与宗教人口多样性，探究不同群体人口趋势随时间趋同的可能性，及其对英国未来人口规模、年龄结构、族裔与宗教构成的影响。研究将依托现有统计数据源（尤其是2001年人口普查、劳动力调查LFS以及英国国家统计局ONS纵向调查），生成截至2006年的少数族裔人口与宗教群体人口统计特征时序数据集。鉴于缺乏按族裔分组的生命统计数据，本项目将采用应用于LFS及人口普查数据的“自有子女法”，推导族裔与宗教群体的生育估算值。研究结果将依托队列要素法，用于预测主要少数族裔群体（包括混合族裔群体）至本世纪中叶及以后的人口规模。移民率测算将基于ONS国际移民统计数据、LFS及人口普查数据，并基于多种假设开展预测。此外，本项目还将生成主要宗教（及无宗教）群体的生育率及其他人口统计信息估算值，以对其未来人口规模开展初步预测。研究还将分析族裔与宗教群体人口统计特征的潜在趋同性，其中将混合婚姻作为族群融合的指标进行探讨。