Election-related internet-shutdowns in autocracies and hybrid regimes

In autocratic and hybrid regimes, the internet plays an ambiguous role. It simultaneously possesses the quality of a liberation technology and opportunities for digital authoritarianism. Although autocrats have learned to utilize the internet to their advantage, they are aware of its liberation potential. Whenever the political survival of the regime is challenged, they use manipulative tools to avert uncertainty. Shutting down the internet has become one of these tools. This articleanalyzes the occurrence of internet shutdowns during national elections in autocratic and hybrid regimes. We show that internet shutdowns do not occur erratically but rather follow strategic decisions. Although capacity to control access to the internet is crucial, we highlight the importance of incentives to shut down the internet provided by different degrees of uncertainty during the election.在威权政体与混合政体中，互联网扮演着模棱两可的双重角色：它兼具解放技术的特质，同时也为数字威权主义提供了可乘之机。尽管威权统治者已学会利用互联网为自身谋取利益，但他们同样清楚其解放潜能。一旦政权的政治存续面临挑战，他们便会动用各类操控性工具以消解不确定性，而关停互联网已成为此类工具之一。本文针对威权与混合政体国家全国大选期间的互联网关停事件展开分析。研究表明，互联网关停并非随机出现，而是遵循战略决策逻辑。尽管管控互联网接入的能力至关重要，但我们着重指出，大选期间不同程度的不确定性所催生的关停互联网动机，同样对相关决策具有重要影响。