门诊流感样病例第二季度青年人数预测模型数据

针对流感样病例监测，基于桐乡各医疗机构门诊就诊记录，获取全年门急诊就诊人数、流感样病例确诊人数、年龄组及性别分布，根据年龄分为婴幼儿、少年、青年、中年、老年，五个年龄层次，筛选出第二季度青年年龄层次的门诊流感样病例人数进行预测，根据该年龄层次的人数预测，为第二季度青年人群流感防控工作及哨点医院监测工作提供新的思路和方法，并合理配置医疗资源。数据采集：从医疗机构获取匿名化样本统计数据，包括每日门急诊就诊人数、流感样病例症状人数、年龄组及性别分布。对数据进行预处理。特征工程：生成针对年龄组大于15小于25的特征AGW_young(t)=α×age_15_25(t)，α为模型权重。 生成性别特征GW_young(t)，仅针对年龄组大于15小于25： GW_young(t)=γ1×male_cases_15_25(t)+γ2×female_cases_15_25(t)，γ1,γ2为模型权重。模型构建：构建一个专门预测年龄组大于15小于25的流感样病例人数的模型 F_young(t)=w1×C_young(t−1)+⋯+wn×C_young(t−n)+β1*AGW_young(t)+β2*GW_young(t)，C_young(t)代表当天年龄组大于15小于25的流感样病例人数；C_young(t−n)为t−n日年龄组大于15小于25的流感样病例人数；wn为历史数据权重；β1和β2是衍生特征权重。构建一个预测年龄组大于15小于25的流感样病例人数的模型 sum_young_se1=∑C_young(t)，时间t在第二季度内For Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) surveillance, based on the outpatient visit records of medical institutions in Tongxiang, we collect the annual number of outpatient and emergency visits, confirmed ILI cases, age and gender distributions. The population is divided into five age groups: infants, adolescents, young adults, middle-aged adults, and elderly adults. We select the number of outpatient ILI cases in the young adult age group during the second quarter for prediction. The prediction results will provide new ideas and methods for influenza prevention and control among the young adult population and sentinel hospital surveillance in the second quarter, as well as support the rational allocation of medical resources. Data Collection: Obtain anonymized sample statistical data from medical institutions, including daily outpatient and emergency visit numbers, number of ILI symptomatic cases, age and gender distributions. Perform data preprocessing. Feature Engineering: Generate the feature AGW_young(t) for the 15-25 age group as: AGW_young(t) = α × age_15_25(t), where α is the model weight. Generate the gender feature GW_young(t) specifically for the 15-25 age group: GW_young(t) = γ1 × male_cases_15_25(t) + γ2 × female_cases_15_25(t), where γ1 and γ2 are model weights. Model Development: Construct a dedicated model for predicting the number of ILI cases in the 15-25 age group: F_young(t) = w₁ × C_young(t−1) + ⋯ + wₙ × C_young(t−n) + β₁×AGW_young(t) + β₂×GW_young(t) Where C_young(t) represents the number of ILI cases in the 15-25 age group on day t; C_young(t−n) represents the number of ILI cases in the 15-25 age group on day t−n; wₙ is the weight of historical data; β₁ and β₂ are the weights of derived features. Construct another prediction model for the 15-25 age group: sum_young_se1 = ∑C_young(t), where time t falls within the second quarter.

搜集汇总

数据集介绍

特点

该数据集包含624条记录，每日更新，主要用于预测第二季度青年人群的流感样病例人数。数据涵盖了门急诊就诊人数、流感样病例症状人数、年龄组及性别分布，并通过构建预测模型为流感防控和医疗资源配置提供决策支持。