Potential landscapes for conservation of the black-tailed prairie dog ecosystem

Aim: To identify potential landscapes for the conservation of the
black-tailed prairie dog (BTPD) ecosystem, across their historical
geographic range within the United States. Location: Central
Grasslands of the United States. Methods: We used a structured decision
analysis approach to identify landscapes with high conservation potential
(HCP) for the BTPD ecosystem. Our analysis incorporated ecological,
political, and social factors, along with changing climate and land use to
maximize long-term conservation potential. We created scenarios that
involved current and future projected suitable BTPD habitat, across the
BTPD range within the United States. These were our RANGEWIDE scenarios.
Additionally, because conservation policies and funding decisions are
often made by political entities, we also identified STATE-LEVEL
conservation priorities, under both present and projected future climate.
Our STATE-LEVEL analysis sought conservation solutions within each of the
states’ boundaries only, so do not consider a rangewide perspective.
Results: The landscapes we identified with HCP (top 30% range-wide)
represented 22% of the historical distribution of black-tailed prairie
dogs and remained strongholds under projected climate change. We provide a
suite of HCP area scenarios to help inform different conservation and
management interests, including those that consider projected climate
change and jurisdictional (state-level) boundaries. STATE-LEVEL
conservation priorities differed considerably from RANGEWIDE priorities,
under both current and future climate scenarios. The largest difference
was among the southern states (Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas), where
climate change reduces the conservation priorities across this region more
when viewed from a RANGEWIDE perspective than when viewed from a
STATE-LEVEL perspective. Additionally, from a RANGEWIDE perspective, the
eastern states have fewer areas with HCP compared to the western states
within the BTPD range, but when viewed from a STATE-LEVEL perspective
there are considerably more areas with HCP. We expected such differences
because this question was aimed at understanding the HCP areas within each
state, so the analysis was seeking conservation solutions within each of
the states’ boundaries. Identifying STATE-LEVEL conservation priorities is
important because funding sources and management priorities are often
focused at the state-level, and not range-wide. This way, each state has
information on conservation priorities within their own jurisdictional
boundaries. We suggest each state focus conservation efforts for the BTPD
ecosystem in those areas that remain priorities into the future at the
STATE-LEVEL, while also considering those priorities identified within
their state under the RANGEWIDE perspective. Main
Conclusions: Our findings highlight the large conservation
potential for BTPDs and associated species, and the maps we generated can
be incorporated into other large-scale, multi-species conservation
planning efforts being developed for the Central Grasslands of North
America.