Modeling post-cyclone resilience in Mananjary: A multivariate Probit analysis

This article analyzes the territorial resilience of the Mananjary district in Madagascar in response to tropical cyclones, focusing on the communes of Tsaravary and Tsarahafatra. The study employs a multivariate Probit model to examine three hypotheses: the relevance of resilience policies, the impact of adaptation strategies on resilience, and the relationship between improved agricultural practices and resilience to cyclones. Data is sourced from surveys of 1,180 households, interviews with local and international institutions, and climatic data related to past cyclones such as Ava, Freddy, and Alvaro. Additional funding could enhance this study by expanding the sample, strengthening data collection, and deepening the analysis. This would also facilitate a more detailed exploration of the long-term impacts of cyclones and broaden the proposed adaptation strategies.