Data - Pathways to Net Zero Emissions: An Australian Perspective on Rapid Decarbonisation

Data and charts for figures of CSIRO's 'Pathways to Net Zero Emissions - An Australian Perspective on Rapid Decarbonisation' technical report. \n\nThis work has been funded by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) to contribute to our collective understanding of potential decarbonisation pathways for Australia, consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. In addition to providing funding for this work, CBA facilitated stakeholder consultation and reviewed the utility of this information for private sector target setting. We thank participants from the Electricity, Buildings, Transport, Iron and Steel, Aluminium and Cement sectors for their input. \n\nLineage: The data results from a set of models that drew on the IEA energy and sectoral pathways (World Energy Outlook 2021) at the global level by incorporating these into CSIRO’s Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) producing two scenarios for Australia. CSIRO Rapid Decarbonisation (CRD) based on a rapid but plausible decarbonisation pathway to net zero for Australia aligned with the IEA’s NZE global 1.5°C carbon budget. CSIRO Stated Policies (CSP) based on stated policies internationally and within Australia, which projects a 2.6°C temperature increase by 2100. \n\nThe data was produced using CSIRO's Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM), KPMG’s Energy and Environment model (KPMG-EE) and CSIRO and ClimateWorks’ Australian TIMES (AusTIMES) models. These models were used to develop detailed technology pathways across energy, transport, buildings, steel, aluminium and cement. Australia’s emissions (CO2 plus non-CO2) budget for the period reflects (i) the response by Australian sectors to the global CO2 and non-CO2 carbon prices, and (ii) assumptions regarding LULUCF (land use, land-use change and forestry) emissions and carbon removal technologies. \n\nFeedback on the detailed sector-by-sector pathways was obtained through consultation with a range of industry experts to assist in calibrating to the Australian context. Modelling has been completed by CSIRO as an independent subject matter expert and primary authors of this report. \n\nScenarios don’t describe what will happen, or what should happen. Rather, they explore the consequences of a set of possible actions and events in the future. As such, scenarios are not predictions, plans or strategy. Instead they are imagined or projected possibilities of a path towards net zero for Australia.

CSIRO的《净零排放路径——澳大利亚视角下的快速脱碳》技术报告配图所用数据与图表。

本研究由澳大利亚联邦银行（Commonwealth Bank of Australia，CBA）资助，旨在助力我们共同理解澳大利亚潜在的脱碳路径，以符合将全球温升限制在工业化前水平以上1.5℃的目标。除提供资金支持外，CBA还推动了利益相关方咨询，并评估了该信息在私营部门目标设定中的实用性。我们感谢电力、建筑、交通、钢铁、铝业及水泥行业的参与者所提供的意见。

数据溯源：本数据集源于一系列模型，这些模型将国际能源署（International Energy Agency，IEA）2021年《世界能源展望》中的全球能源与部门脱碳路径纳入澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织（Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation，CSIRO）的全球贸易与环境模型（Global Trade and Environment Model，GTEM），由此生成了澳大利亚的两种情景：一是CSIRO快速脱碳情景（CSIRO Rapid Decarbonisation，CRD），该情景基于一条快速且合理的澳大利亚净零脱碳路径，契合IEA的1.5℃温控全球碳预算；二是CSIRO既定政策情景（CSIRO Stated Policies，CSP），该情景基于国际及澳大利亚国内的既定政策，预计到2100年全球温升将达2.6℃。

本数据依托CSIRO的全球贸易与环境模型（GTEM）、毕马威（KPMG）能源与环境模型（KPMG-EE），以及CSIRO与ClimateWorks联合开发的澳大利亚TIMES模型（Australian TIMES，AusTIMES）生成。上述模型被用于构建能源、交通、建筑、钢铁、铝业及水泥行业的详细技术路径。澳大利亚研究时段内的碳排放（二氧化碳及非二氧化碳）预算，一方面反映了澳大利亚各部门对全球二氧化碳与非二氧化碳碳定价的响应，另一方面也基于土地利用、土地利用变化与林业（Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry，LULUCF）排放及碳移除技术的相关假设。

研究团队通过与多位行业专家咨询获取了分部门详细路径的反馈意见，以助力模型适配澳大利亚本地情境。本建模工作由作为独立领域专家的CSIRO及本报告的主要作者完成。

情景并非对未来必然发生或应当发生之事的描述，而是探索未来一系列可能行动与事件所带来的后果。因此，情景并非预测、规划或战略，而是对澳大利亚通往净零排放路径的一种假想或推演可能性。