Global Extreme Sea Level projections

In this study we present probabilistic projections of Extreme Sea Levels (ESL) until the end of the 21st century along the global coastline, by considering the contribution of mean sea level, tides, waves and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely (90% probability) increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34-76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario, and of 58-172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Intensification of the frequency of the design conditions is projected under both of the RCP scenarios for most of the shorelines, implying for timely actions towards coastal adaptation.

本研究针对全球沿海岸线，综合考量平均海平面、潮汐、波浪与风暴潮的贡献，给出了直至21世纪末的极端海平面（Extreme Sea Levels, ESL）概率预估结果。在2000年至2100年间，基于温和减排政策情景，全球平均百年一遇极端海平面极有可能（概率为90%）升高34至76厘米；而在照常排放情景下，该升高幅度为58至172厘米。多数海岸线在两种典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP）情景下，其设计海况的发生频率均预计会加剧，这意味着需及时采取行动以推进海岸适应工作。