The Demand Model of the Danish National Model

In the present paper the structure of the demand model framework for the new Danish national model is outlined. It involves a discussion at two levels. At the framework level, we discuss how demand is modelled in a number of parallel sub-models and how these are linked. An issue is to represent all transport but on the other hand avoid double counting. At the sub-model level, special attention is given to the week-day model as well as the international component of the model. The model for week-day traffic represents the most important components with respect to overall mileage and congestion and is therefore particularly important from a policy point of view. The international models are relevant because these are central to the Fehmarn Belt application of the model to be finished in the first quarter of 2012. For the international models we consider segmentation and nesting structure for the international day model, the transit model, and the overnight model. Finally, we discuss how trip chains of higher dimensions can be represented in a matrix form applicable for the assignment procedure.本文概述了新版丹麦国家交通需求模型框架的结构。该框架包含两个层面的讨论：在框架层面，本文探讨了多组并行子模型的交通需求建模方式，以及各子模型间的联动机制，核心议题在于完整覆盖各类交通出行的同时避免重复计数；在子模型层面，本文重点关注工作日出行模型与模型的国际出行组分。工作日交通模型涵盖了影响总出行里程与拥堵状况的核心组分，因此从政策制定视角来看具有极高的重要性。国际出行模型之所以至关重要，是因为其为2012年第一季度即将完成的费马恩海峡（Fehmarn Belt）模型应用项目的核心支撑。针对国际出行模型，本文分别探讨了日间国际出行模型、过境出行模型与夜间出行模型的细分维度与嵌套结构。最后，本文探讨了如何以适用于交通分配流程的矩阵形式，表征高维度出行链结构。