Identifying mismatches between conservation area networks and vulnerable populations using spatial randomization

Grassland birds are among the most globally threatened bird groups due to substantial degradation of native grassland habitats. However, the current network of grassland conservation areas may not be adequate for halting population declines and biodiversity loss. Here, we evaluate a network of grassland conservation areas within Wisconsin, U.S.A. that includes both large Focal Landscapes and smaller targeted conservation areas (e.g., Grassland Bird Conservation Areas or GBCAs) established within them. To date, this conservation network has lacked baseline information to assess whether the current placement of these conservation areas aligns with population hotspots of grassland-dependent taxa. To do so, we fitted data from thousands of avian point-count surveys collected by citizen scientists as part of Wisconsin’s Breeding Bird Atlas II with multinomial N-mixture models to estimate habitat-abundance relationships, develop spatially-explicit predictions of abundance and establish ecolog...