The Aftermath of the February Flood of 1825: Social and Demographic Change in in the Krummhörn Region, East Frisia

In
February 1825, the dikes broke after a spring tide in the Krummhörn region in
East Frisia, Germany, causing a severe disaster. Although the flood did not
claim many victims, substantial damage was done to the farmland, and the
economic crisis that followed permanently changed the social structure in the
Krummhörn. We study family reconstitutions of the region linked to information
about socioeconomic status, detailed reports of the flood damage, and
information on crop prices for the entire study period. We innovate on the
literature through our reconstruction of property damage at the parish level,
as well as of the economic development in the region, combined with family
reconstitutions. We investigate the short-term impact of the flood on marital
fertility and child mortality, as well as the long-term impact on age at first
childbirth and age at first marriage of individuals who experienced the flood
early in life. We use Cox proportional hazard models to study mortality. The
timing and the likelihood of transitions are investigated with the help of mixed
parametric cure models. We find that child mortality, but not infant mortality,
increased in the flood aftermath, but that this increase in mortality was not
attributable to the flood-related damage. Furthermore, we find no evidence of
changes in the timing of first childbirth or marriage among the affected
individuals. These findings contrast with the results of several other studies
indicating that external shocks and crisis experience early in life affect life
course outcomes.