Data from: Fruiting phenology is linked to rainfall variability in a tropical rain forest

As the influence of climate change on tropical forests becomes apparent, more studies are needed to understand how changes in climatic variables like rainfall are likely to affect tree phenology. Using a twelve-year dataset (2005–2016), we studied the impact of seasonal rainfall patterns on the fruiting phenology of 69 tree species in the rain forest of southeastern Madagascar. We found that average annual rainfall in this region has increased by >800mm (23%) during this period relative to that recorded for the previous 40 years, and was highly variable both within and between years. Higher monthly measures of fruiting richness and the intensity of fruiting in our sample community were significantly associated with higher levels of rainfall. We also found that less rainfall during the dry season, but not the wet season, was associated with a significant shift toward later timing of peak richness and peak intensity of fruiting in the subsequent 12 months; however, this pattern was driven primarily by an extreme drought event that occurred during the study period. Longer time scales of phenology data should be examined in the future to see if this pattern holds. Madagascar is expected to experience more extremes in rainfall and drought with increasing climate change. Thus, understanding the impacts of variable precipitation on the timing of reproduction of forest trees will have important consequences for plant reproduction and the ability of Madagascar’s wildlife to cope with a changing climate.随着气候变化对热带森林的影响愈发显著，亟需开展更多研究以明晰降雨等气候变量的变化可能如何作用于树木物候（phenology）。本研究依托2005至2016年的12年数据集，探究了马达加斯加东南部雨林中69个树种的结实物候对季节降雨格局的响应。研究结果显示，相较于此前40年的观测记录，该区域在本次研究时段内的年平均降雨量增加了800毫米以上（增幅达23%），且年内与年际间的降水变异性均极高。样地群落的月度结实丰富度与结实强度的更高水平，均与更高降雨量呈显著正相关。本研究同时发现，旱季降雨量偏少（而非雨季）与后续12个月内结实峰值丰富度和峰值强度的显著后移存在关联；不过这一模式主要由研究期间发生的一次极端干旱事件所主导。未来应开展更长时间尺度的物候数据研究，以验证该模式是否成立。随着气候变化加剧，马达加斯加预计将遭遇更多降雨与干旱极端事件。因此，厘清降水变异性对林木繁殖时机的影响，将对植物繁殖以及马达加斯加野生动物适应气候变化的能力具有重要意义。