Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19 in U.S. (Discontinued)

Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.
Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways, and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this web page were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and the upper bound of the 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) of these expected counts is used as a threshold to estimate excess deaths. Observed counts are compared to these upper bound estimates to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Provisional counts are weighted to account for potential under reporting in the most recent weeks. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Only about 60% of deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, and there is considerable variation by jurisdiction.

超额死亡（excess deaths）的估计值，可提供除直接归因于新冠（COVID-19）的死亡人数之外，潜在与新冠相关的死亡率负担相关信息。超额死亡通常被定义为实际观测死亡数与预期死亡数之间的差值。本可视化数据集提供了按发生辖区划分的周度超额死亡数据。针对近期数周的死亡计数，会与历史趋势进行比对，以判断死亡数是否显著高于预期。

超额死亡的估计值可通过多种方法计算，且会因方法学及预期死亡数的相关假设不同而存在差异。本网页展示的超额死亡估计值采用法林顿监测算法（Farrington surveillance algorithms）(1)计算得到。针对每个辖区，将通过模型生成一组预期死亡计数，并以这些预期计数的95%置信区间（95% Confidence Intervals, 95% CI）上限作为阈值，用于估算超额死亡。将观测到的死亡计数与该上限估算值进行比对，即可判断是否出现死亡数的显著上升。为抵消近期数周潜在的报告延迟问题，已对临时计数进行加权处理。不过，最近一周或数周的数据仍可能存在不完整的情况：仅有约60%的死亡病例会在死亡日期后的10天内完成报告，且不同辖区的报告情况存在显著差异。