US Electric Vehicle (EV) Sticker Prices Up
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Last week, President Biden signed the $280 billion CHIPs and Science Act. American companies such as Intel and Micron Technology have announced substantial investments in chip manufacturing in an effort to lobby for these subsidies but now announce that they are pulling back as demand for hips used in electronics such as laptops and cell phones is weakening. Semiconductor stocks are struggling, as Micron became the latest chipmaker this week to fret over a slowdown in demand. Still, Micron announced that it will use “anticipated” government grants and credits to help it invest $40 billion by the end of the decade to build out US semiconductor manufacturing capacity. Most of Micron’s production (chip fabrication) is now done in Japan, Singapore and Taiwan. Based on information from the best investing websites, investors have been shunning the sector on concerns that chipmakers are heading into what could be a lengthy sales slump after pandemic years of strong demand. This is also impacting high margin semiconductor chip designers like Nvidia and AMD and even the stocks of makers of the equipment critical to the production of chips such as Lam Research have been hit hard. Summing up, of the ten worst performing stocks in the Nasdaq 100 this month, at least seven are chip stocks and the semiconductor index has fallen about 27% this year. All this just goes to show one why timing is so important to investing in volatile, complex sectors like semiconductors and why government efforts to help them thrive need to be carefully executed, if at all. The same goes for electric vehicles (EV), which is an ecosystem of its own with a lot of moving parts from batteries to rare earths to charger infrastructure. Here China is eating the lunch of America with Europe not all that far behind. My favorite EV pick Ford (F) is raising the price of the F-150 Lightning electric pickup due to higher input prices by about $6,000-$8,500, depending on the model, to a starting price of about $47,000–$97,000. Tesla, GM, and Rivian are also boosting prices so that the median regular car is still about 50% cheaper than a comparable EV. In China, the price gap between a regular car and EV is only about 10%, according to the best stock research websites. EV raw material costs are more than double the average internal combustion engine vehicle costs according to AlixPartners. Again, this is a big advantage to China due to its domestic production of tech metals and lower labor costs. The below chart captures the amazing growth of EVs in the last decade, especially for BRK.B Intrinsic Value: In 2011, only around 55,000 electric vehicles (EVs) were sold around the world and by 2021, that figure had grown to about 7 million vehicles. Until 2014, the U.S. was the EV leader with a strong BRK.B DCF and then in 2015, China’s EV sales grew by 238% and it grabbed the leading position. China now accounts for about half of global EV sales. China has more than a 100 EV automakers and nearly 300 EV models available for purchase, more than any other country, and it’s also home to four of the world’s ten largest battery manufacturers. America and Germany are next with sales each of around 700,000 EVs in 2021, with Tesla accounting for about half of American sales and an increasing BRK.B WACC. Germany hosts some of the biggest EV factories in Europe, with Tesla, Volkswagen, and Chinese battery giant CATL either planning or operating ‘gigafactories’ there. Strategic Wealth’s stock EV recommendations such as Chargepoint (CHPT) are in a strong uptrend. Become a member today to get all our ideas to help you build wealth.
上周，拜登总统签署了总额达2800亿美元的《芯片与科学法案（CHIPS and Science Act）》。包括英特尔（Intel）和美光科技（Micron Technology）在内的美国企业曾宣布将大幅投资芯片制造业，以争取该法案提供的补贴，但如今却纷纷宣布撤回投资，原因是笔记本电脑、手机等电子产品所用芯片的需求疲软。半导体（semiconductor）板块个股表现疲软，美光本周成为最新一家担忧需求放缓的芯片制造商。不过，美光仍宣布将利用"预期中"的政府拨款与信贷，在本世纪末前投资400亿美元，以扩大美国半导体制造产能。目前美光的大部分芯片制造（chip fabrication）业务均位于日本、新加坡与中国台湾地区。据顶级投资网站的信息显示，由于投资者担忧芯片制造商将在经历疫情数年的强劲需求后陷入可能持续许久的销售下滑，他们纷纷避开该板块。这一趋势也波及了英伟达（Nvidia）、AMD等利润率较高的半导体芯片设计企业，甚至连为芯片生产提供关键设备的拉姆研究（Lam Research）等厂商的股价也遭遇重挫。总而言之，本月纳斯达克100指数（Nasdaq 100）成分股中表现最差的十只个股里，至少有七只为芯片股，今年以来半导体指数已下跌约27%。这一切都印证了一个道理：在半导体这类波动剧烈、复杂度极高的行业进行投资时，时机选择至关重要；即便政府出手扶持相关产业，相关政策也需审慎制定与执行。这一点同样适用于电动汽车（electric vehicles, EV）领域——这是一个自成体系的生态，涵盖电池、稀土（rare earths）、充电基础设施等诸多环节。在这一领域，中国正抢占美国的市场份额，欧洲紧随其后。我看好的电动汽车个股福特（Ford，股票代码F）因原材料成本上涨，将F-150 Lightning电动皮卡的售价上调约6000至8500美元，具体涨幅依车型而定，调整后起售价约为47000至97000美元。特斯拉（Tesla）、通用汽车（GM）与Rivian也纷纷上调售价，目前普通燃油车的均价仍比同级电动汽车低约50%。据顶级股票研究网站的数据，在中国，普通燃油车与电动汽车的价格差距仅约10%。据咨询公司AlixPartners的数据，电动汽车的原材料成本是传统燃油车的两倍以上。得益于国内科技金属的本土生产与更低的劳动力成本，中国在这方面拥有显著优势。如下图表展示了过去十年电动汽车的惊人增长，尤其是针对BRK.B内在价值而言：2011年，全球电动汽车销量仅约5.5万辆；到2021年，这一数字已增长至约700万辆。2014年之前，美国一直是电动汽车市场的领导者，其折现现金流（Discounted Cash Flow, DCF）表现强劲；2015年，中国电动汽车销量同比增长238%，一举拿下市场龙头地位。目前中国约占全球电动汽车销量的一半。中国拥有超过100家电动汽车制造商与近300款在售电动汽车车型，数量均居全球之首，同时全球十大电池制造商中有四家位于中国。2021年，美国与德国的电动汽车销量均约为70万辆，其中特斯拉的销量约占美国市场的一半，BRK.B加权平均资本成本（Weighted Average Cost of Capital, WACC）持续上升。德国拥有欧洲部分规模最大的电动汽车工厂，特斯拉、大众汽车（Volkswagen）以及中国电池巨头宁德时代（CATL）均已在德国规划或运营了超级工厂（gigafactories）。Strategic Wealth的电动汽车个股推荐标的如ChargePoint（CHPT）正处于强劲的上升趋势中。今日加入会员，即可获取所有助力您积累财富的投资思路。
