基于碳收支与碳强度的京津冀县域碳功能分区

[Objective] Under the holistic perspective of the “community of life”, integrating carbon neutrality goals into the territorial spatial planning of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is of significant importance for advancing the region's green, low-carbon transformation and high-quality development. [Methods] A total of 199 county-level units in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were selected as the research subjects. The carbon budget, carbon ecological carrying coefficient, and carbon intensity of land use in these counties for the years 2011, 2016, and 2021 were calculated and analyzed. GIS-based spatial analysis was employed to identify their spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics. On this basis, GIS was used to spatially overlay and cross-classify carbon function types and major functional zones, constructing a low-carbon-oriented territorial spatial zoning system. Subsequently, zonal low-carbon development strategies were proposed. [Results] (1) From 2011 to 2021, total carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showed an overall increase. Carbon absorption exhibited a stable spatial pattern characterized by “higher values in the Yanshan-Bashang area and lower values in the plains and coastal areas”. Net carbon emissions showed spatial differentiation characteristics, with higher values in the central-eastern corridor and lower values in the Taihang-Yanshan mountain regions. (2) The carbon intensity at the county level showed an overall decline with inter-county convergence. Specifically, Beijing's carbon intensity was significantly lower than the regional average and its distribution was relatively concentrated. Tianjin was at an intermediate level, and Hebei was generally higher but showed varying degrees of decline. Spatially, carbon intensity increased stepwise from “core urban areas-suburban belts-outer corridors”. A marked contrast emerged between high-value zones along the “coastal development axis” and low-value zones within the mountainous “ecological barrier”. (3) Based on the four carbon function types, they were overlaid with major functional zoning to reconstruct six primary zones: low-carbon intensive development zone, agricultural production support zone, ecological function maintenance zone, carbon intensity control zone, carbon sink function zone, and high-carbon governance and optimization zone. Furthermore, within the agricultural and ecological categories, seven secondary subtypes were refined according to their carbon emission characteristics. [Conclusion] Constructing a county-level carbon function identification method and aligning it with major functional zoning form a hierarchical low-carbon zoning system. This can provide a spatial basis for differentiated county-level regulation and subsequent dynamic assessment.