Assessing Dengue Virus Importation Risks in Africa: A Climate and Travel-Based Model

For the model, air travel monthly passenger volumes were used. The risk of dengue introduction into Africa from countries of high incidence in Asia, Latin America, and within Africa was estimated based on origin–destination air travel flows and epidemic activity at origin. We produced a novel proxy for local dengue epidemic activity using a composite index of theoretical climate-driven transmission suitability and population density, which we used, in addition to travel information in a risk flow model, to estimate importation risk. Used in the manuscript "Assessing Dengue Virus Importation Risks in Africa: A Climate and Travel-Based Model" doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00272-9.