Estimation of population stock to demand education for youngsters and adults in the State of São Paulo in 1995 and 2015

Abstract The Guidelines and Bases for National Education Law establishes that it is the Federation's duty to annually register, not only school-age children and adolescents, but also youngsters and adults who have not completed basic education. The aim of this study is to measure the stock of youngsters and adults (15 to 64 years old) with incomplete basic education in the State of São Paulo and to estimate the demand for education should all of them return to school. The methodology is based on data from the 1995 and 2015 National Household Sample Survey and on the application of the Profluxo model. Results indicate that the main narrowing in the system occurs in the transition from one educational cycle to another. The demand persists, especially in the first years of each cycle of basic education, although in a lower volume in 2015, compared to 1995.