ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in Food Price Outlook

The USDA, Economic Research Service’s (ERS) Food Price Outlook (FPO) provides forecasts of annual food price changes up to 18 months in the future. Once a month, the FPO forecasts the annual percentage change in prices for the current year and, beginning in July each year, for the following year. ERS has forecasted food prices for decades and periodically updates and improves the forecasting methods. In 2022, researchers at ERS developed a method to forecast food price changes more accurately while better representing the level of uncertainty in forecasts.

美国农业部（United States Department of Agriculture, USDA）经济研究服务局（Economic Research Service, ERS）推出的《食品价格展望》（Food Price Outlook, FPO）可对未来最长18个月的年度食品价格变动进行预测。该报告每月更新一次，可预测本年度的食品价格年度百分比变动；自每年7月起，还可同时预测下一年度的食品价格变动。ERS开展食品价格预测工作已有数十年之久，并会定期更新与优化其预测方法。2022年，ERS研究人员开发出一种全新预测方法，可在更精准地预测食品价格变动的同时，更好地呈现预测结果中的不确定性水平。