National assessments of species vulnerability to climate change strongly depend on selected data sources

Aim: Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are among the most frequently used tools for conservation planning under climate and land-use changes. Conservation-focused climate change studies are often conducted on a national or local level and can use different sources of occurrence records (e.g., local databases, national biodiversity monitoring) collated at different geographic extents. However, little is known about how these restrictions in geographic space (i.e., Wallacean shortfall) can lead to restrictions in environmental space (i.e. Hutchinsonian shortfall) and accordingly affect conclusions about a species’ vulnerability to climate change.

Location: Americas with a focus on Mexico.

Methods: We present an example study constructing SDMs for three Mexican tree species (Alnus acuminata, Liquidambar styraciflua and Quercus xalapensis) using datasets collated at a global (Americas), national (Mexico) and local (cloud forests of eastern Mexico) level to demonstrate the...