Brazilian states manufacturing production and employment: evidences of deindustrialization

Abstract This paper investigates the deindustrialization hypothesis in Brazilian states in the period 1996-2014, and whether this process is linked to the economic policies (interest rate and trade liberalization) implemented in the country and to exchange rate and favorable prices context for primary products. For this, it analyzes manufacturing states production and employment indicators, and estimates panel data models. In general, manufacturing performance indicators signal a possible deindustrialization process in progress for some states. Moreover, the econometric results suggest the relevance of exchange rate and commodity prices to explain the lower capacity of the states manufacturing industry to generate output and employment, supporting deindustrialization hypothesis by Dutch disease.

摘要 本文针对1996至2014年巴西各州的去工业化（deindustrialization）假说展开研究，探讨该去工业化进程是否与巴西国内施行的经济政策（利率与贸易自由化）、汇率环境以及初级产品价格利好条件存在关联。为此，本文分析了各州制造业的生产与就业指标，并构建面板数据模型进行估计。总体而言，制造业表现指标显示，部分州正处于潜在的去工业化进程之中。此外，计量经济学结果表明，汇率与大宗商品价格能够有效解释各州制造业创造产出与就业的能力下滑，印证了基于荷兰病（Dutch disease）视角的去工业化假说。