Data from: Inferring responses to climate dynamics from historical demography in neotropical forest lizards

We apply a comparative framework to test for concerted demographic changes
in response to climate shifts in the neotropical lowland forests, learning
from the past to inform projections of the future. Using reduced genomic
(SNP) data from three lizard species codistributed in Amazonia and the
Atlantic Forest (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii, and Polychrus
marmoratus), we first reconstruct former population history and test for
assemblage-level responses to cycles of moisture transport recently
implicated in changes of forest distribution during the Late Quaternary.
We find support for population shifts within the time frame of inferred
precipitation fluctuations (the last 250,000 y) but detect idiosyncratic
responses across species and uniformity of within-species responses across
forest regions. These results are incongruent with expectations of
concerted population expansion in response to increased rainfall and fail
to detect out-of-phase demographic syndromes (expansions vs. contractions)
across forest regions. Using reduced genomic data to infer
species-specific demographical parameters, we then model the plausible
spatial distribution of genetic diversity in the Atlantic Forest into
future climates (2080) under a medium carbon emission trajectory. The
models forecast very distinct trajectories for the lizard species,
reflecting unique estimated population densities and dispersal abilities.
Ecological and demographic constraints seemingly lead to distinct and
asynchronous responses to climatic regimes in the tropics, even among
similarly distributed taxa. Incorporating such constraints is key to
improve modeling of the distribution of biodiversity in the past and
future.