GloFAS: seasonal outlook

This data set composes of three separate layers, each providing a global seasonal outlook on flow anomalies and their probability of occurrence; one at predefined locations, one for the river network and the last aggregated over river basins. River flow anomaly and its probability of occurrence for the next 4 month. The anomaly is calculated from the current seasonal forecast (produced by forcing the LISFLOOD model with the 51 members ensemble from the ECMWF System 4 seasonal forecast) with respect to the 90th and 10th percentiles of the simulated discharge from a 24-year model climatology run (1990 - 2013). The seasonal forecast outlook plots are updated on a weekly basis with the latest weekly averaged water balance. A new seasonal forecast outlook (map and plots) is generated at the beginning of each month when the new forecast becomes available (usually on the 8th of the month). This information is produced once a week by the operational GloFAS (www.globalfloods.eu) for the entire globe in order to provide the GloFAS user with a first glimpse of an upcoming seasonal tendency.本数据集包含三个独立图层，各图层均可提供全球尺度的径流异常及其发生概率的季节展望：其一针对预设监测点位，其二面向河网系统，其三则基于流域尺度进行聚合统计。 本数据集涵盖未来4个月的径流异常及其发生概率信息。该异常值基于当前季节预报计算得到：该预报通过将ECMWF System 4季节预报的51成员集合驱动LISFLOOD模型（LISFLOOD model）生成，计算时以1990-2013年共24年的模型气候学模拟径流量的90百分位与10百分位作为参照基准。季节预报展望图将每周结合最新的周平均水量平衡数据进行更新。每月初（通常为当月8日）当新预报数据可用时，将生成全新的季节预报专题地图与展望图。 该信息由业务化运行的GloFAS（www.globalfloods.eu）每周面向全球范围生成，旨在为GloFAS用户提供即将到来的季节水情趋势的初步预览。