Central Bank performance in a stable economy: is it desirable to adopt inflation targets in Brazil?

ABSTRACT This article deals with the possible adoption of explicit inflation targets by monetary authorities in Brazil, following the example of the experiences of New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Finland, Australia and Spain. Inflation targets would work, first, as a coordination device for those involved in the price and wage setting process, and second, as a transparent aim of the monetary policy, whose performance would be evaluated by the adherence of inflation to the targets. The paper shows the motivations that explain the adoption of the regime, discusses its theoretical fundamentals, and analyzes the problems and trade-offs related to its implementation in practice. Finally, based on the theory and the international experience, some arguments in favour of the adoption of the regime of inflation targets in Brazil are developed.摘要 本文探讨巴西货币当局效仿新西兰、加拿大、英国、瑞典、芬兰、澳大利亚及西班牙的实践经验，采用显性通货膨胀目标（explicit inflation targets）的可行性。通货膨胀目标的作用机制主要有二：其一，可为价格与工资制定环节的参与主体提供协调基准；其二，作为货币政策的透明化政策目标，货币政策的实施效果将通过通胀水平与目标的契合程度进行评估。本文阐明了该制度的采用动因，探讨了其理论基础，并分析了其在实际实施过程中面临的问题与权衡取舍。最后，基于相关理论与国际实践经验，本文提出了支持巴西采用通货膨胀目标制的若干论证。