Probability of falsely detecting a change in .

As detailed in the methods section, a statistical difference was determined by using the likelihood ratio test to compare two transmission models. The first model assigns separate values of to the 1980s monkeypox data and the simulated data, while the second model assigns a single to both data sets. Both models assign a single value of to both data sets. Since the second model is nested in the first, statistical significance was determined by setting a 95% confidence threshold on the likelihood ratio test. Probability values that exceed 5% indicate an over-abundance of false positive detections of change in . Each result was based on 10,000 simulations.