Realistic LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing scenarios based on O3 public alerts

Efforts to search for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave sources have intensified dramatically since the 2017 discovery a binary neutron star merger with an associated gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic afterglow. Now, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second secure identification of electromagnetic counterpart. This is not unexpected, and can be mostly explained by the localization uncertainty of events from LIGO and Virgo’s most recent, third observing run (“O3”). The official LIGO/Virgo observing scenarios fail to account for improvements in data analysis that allow LIGO/Virgo to detect fainter and hence worse-localized gravitational- wave sources, which increases the number of detections while decreasing the proportion of well-localized “gold-plated” events. Realistic forecasting of gravitational-wave localization performance is paramount because electromagnetic counterpart searches require large commitments of telescope time. We present simulations of the next several LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs that are based on the statistics of O3 public alerts.