External Threats and Support for Military Service under Authoritarian Rule

As international conflicts escalate, states are increasingly turning to conscription and broader public participation in national defense. This article examines how acute external threats influence public attitudes toward military service. Leveraging original survey data from Iran, fielded before and after the unprecedented April 13, 2024 missile exchange with Israel, I use matching techniques to compare responses across the two periods. Individuals surveyed after the attack were significantly more likely to support mandatory male conscription and to support women’s military service. Importantly, support rose even though conscription is widely unpopular in peacetime and despite Iran’s gender hierarchies. These findings demonstrate that external threats can legitimize coercion in contexts of regime distrust and reconfigure gender boundaries around military participation. The study contributes to research on public perceptions of war, coercion, and militarization by highlighting how geopolitical shocks recalibrate the boundaries of both state authority and gendered citizenship.