Present status, future trends, and control strategies of invasive alien plants in China affected by human activities and climate change

Invasive alien plants (IAPs) have serious environmental and economic
impacts, especially in vulnerable areas of China. However, IAP richness
distribution patterns, their driving factors, and the dynamic shifts in
potential distribution areas remain elusive. We assessed IAP richness
distribution patterns and drivers using 402 IAPs recorded in China at
88,926 occurrence points, and then predicted their potential distribution
areas. The results show that IAP hotspots were mainly located in
southeastern China, especially coastal areas of the South and East and
large inland cities. Population density, gross domestic product (GDP), and
four climate variables associated with precipitation and temperature
jointly influenced the richness distribution pattern of all IAPs.
Specifically, population density and GDP impacted the richness
distribution pattern of narrow-range IAPs, and population density, GDP,
distance to the nearest national highway, and five climate variables
affected the richness distribution pattern of widespread IAPs. Only GDP
contributed significantly to the richness distribution pattern of the top
5% hotspot grid cells, whereas population density, GDP, and precipitation
in the driest month (BIO14) significantly influenced the richness
distribution patterns of hotspots for both the top 10% and top 20%.
Prediction analysis demonstrated that southeastern China would have a
particularly high invasion risk under both current and future climate
scenarios. Regions with increases in predicted species richness are more
common (44.83%–64.97%) than those with decreases, except under the
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Climate change
will contribute greatly to the expansion of potential IAP distribution
areas under both optimistic (RCP 2.5) and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 8.5).
The results of this study provide insights into the priority management of
IAPs through developing promising strategies for the control and
prevention of IAP invasion.