MetaComNet: A random forest-based framework for making spatial prediction of plant-pollinator interactions

1. Predicting plant-pollinator interaction networks over space and time will improve our understanding of how environmental change is likely to impact the functioning of ecosystems. Here we propose a framework for producing spatially explicit predictions of the occurrence and number of pairwise plant-pollinator interactions and of the species richness, diversity, and abundance of pollinators visiting flowers. We call the framework ‘MetaComNet’ because it aims to link metacommunity dynamics to the assembly of ecological networks.

2. To illustrate the MetaComNet functionality, we used a dataset on bee-flower networks sampled at 16 sites in southeast Norway along with random forest models to predict bee-flower interactions. We included variables associated with climatic conditions (elevation) and habitat availability within a 250m radius of each site. Regional commonness, site-specific distance to conspecifics, social guild, and floral preference were included as bee traits. Each plant ...