Present and future distribution of bat hosts of sarbecoviruses: implications for conservation and public health

Global changes in response to human encroachment into natural habitats and
carbon emissions are driving the biodiversity extinction crisis and
increasing disease emergence risk. Host distributions are one critical
component to identify areas at risk of viral spillover, and bats act as
reservoirs of diverse viruses. We developed a reproducible ecological
niche modelling pipeline for bat hosts of SARS-like viruses (subgenus
Sarbecovirus), given that several closely-related viruses have been
discovered and sarbecovirus-host interactions have gained attention since
SARS-CoV-2 emergence. We assessed sampling biases and modeled current
distributions of bats based on climate and landscape relationships and
project future scenarios for host hotspots. The most important predictors
of species distributions were temperature seasonality and cave
availability. We identified concentrated host hotspots in Myanmar and
projected range contractions for most species by 2100. Our projections
indicate hotspots will shift east in Southeast Asia in locations greater
than 2 °C hotter in a fossil-fueled development future. Hotspot shifts
have implications for conservation and public health, as loss of
population connectivity can lead to local extinctions, and remaining
hotspots may concentrate near human populations.