Reversing the great degradation of nature by reducing factors related to cropland expansion

As one of the main causes of habitat loss, agricultural cropland expansion is a major threat to biodiversity. We analyze past and anticipated future trends in population, per capita crop demand, and crop yield to estimate agricultural cropland requirements globally by 2050 and 2100, assuming moderate levels of climate change. According to a model of “business as usual,” higher-income countries would be expected to show little or no net growth in cropland by the end of the century whereas cropland area could nearly double in lower-income countries. We consider two strategies to reduce global cropland expansion: decreasing per capita crop demand in higher-income countries**** by eating healthier diets, reducing food waste, and reducing biofuel production**** and accelerating economic development in lower-income countries. Economic development in lower-income countries could reduce future cropland requirements via slower population growth, improved crop yield, and higher volumes of gl..., , All of the data files are analyzed using R., , This README file was generated on 2026-03-04 by Erik Nelson.

GENERAL INFORMATION

1. Title of Dataset: Reversing the Great Degradation of Nature by Reducing Factors Related to Cropland Expansion.
2. Author Information
Name: Erik Nelson
Institution: Bowdoin College
Address: Brunswick, ME USA
Email: [[e-mail]](mailto:[e-mail])

SHARING/ACCESS INFORMATION

1. Licenses/restrictions placed on the data: CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain
2. Links to publications that cite or use the data:

Polasky, Stephen, Erik Nelson, David Tilman, James Gerber, Justin Andrew Johnson, Erwin Corong, Forest Isbell, Jason Hill, and Craig Packer. (2026). Reversing the Great Degradation of Nature by Reducing Factors Related to Cropland Expansion. Proceedings of National Academies of Sciences. [https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2506601123](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2506601123)

1. Recommended citation for this dataset:

Polasky, Stephen, Erik Nelson, David Tilman, James G..., **Changes after Apr 4, 2025:** 2026-03-04: The second version of this dataset was published on 2025-03-07. The 2025-03-07 version of the dataset was part of a submission to the journal PNAS. Our submission was awarded a revise and resubmit designation. The reviewers asked us to change how we modeled future cropland. Therefore, this submission reflects our updated modeling. Thew new modeling approach is found in the R scripts SSP1_RCP45YesGTAP.R and SSP1_RCP45YesGTAP_AccDevVariations.R. These new R scripts replace the R scripts SSP1_NoCCYesGTAP.R and the 2025-03-07 version of SSP1_RCP45YesGTAP.R from our 2025-03-07 dataset. All other changes we have made to the dataset are cosmetic (i.e., changing numbering of SM Figures and related code).

**Changes after Jul 21, 2023: **2025-03-07: The first version of this dataset was published on 2023-07-21. The 2023-07-21 version of the dataset was part of a submission to the journal Nature. Our submission was rejected. As part o...