Searching for GOATS and Black Swans in Materials Chemistry

Many technological advances rely on the discovery of materials with properties that are the greatest of all time (GOAT). These extraordinary materials display rare and unique characteristics, so their discoveries can be likened to Black Swan events, which are rare and impactful occurrences. The potential for discovering such remarkable materials is vast, far exceeding the number of currently known materials. Now, more than ever, we have the computational and experimental tools to explore this landscape. However, current approaches often yield materials that are marginally better suited to practical application than their predecessors. These incremental improvements rarely provide new insights into the connection between material structure and properties. Consequently, the discovery of exceptional materials remains a slow, expensive, and largely serendipitous process. A method for estimating the probability of success prior to pursuing a candidate material would be invaluable, particularly when the goal is to identify outliers with exceptional properties.