Never Fear to Negotiate

Research on the concept of “rallying around the flag” has focused exclusively on the potential benefits for leaders under certain conditions of conflict. What has gone underexplored is whether leaders receive similar benefits for taking actions aimed at resolving conflicts, in particular negotiations with adversaries. To answer this question, this paper employs a new dataset that looks at U.S. relations with the Soviet Union and China during the Cold War. The dataset includes potential “peaceful” rallies including summits, negotiations, and agreements. Controlling for a number of potential factors, the results show that a “peaceful rally” effect exists but is conditioned by political leanings. Democrats are more likely to support negotiations conducted by Republican administrations, while the opposite is true for Republicans. The paper concludes by discussing the implication that leaders benefit from negotiating.<br>The dataset includes new data on meetings between the US and the Soviet Union or China between 1953 and 1993. In addition to polling data, there is also data on inflation, divided government, unemployment, immigration, and military crises.