Risk of weight gain for specific antipsychotic drugs: A Bayesian network meta-analysis of individual participant level clinical trial data

People with schizophrenia are at considerably higher risk of cardiometabolic morbidity than the general population. Second-generation antipsychotic drugs contribute to that risk partly through their weight gain effects, exacerbating an already high burden of disease. While standard ‘as-randomized’ analyses of clinical trials provide valuable information, they ignore adherence patterns across treatment arms, confounding estimates of realized treatment exposure on outcome. We assess the effect of specific second-generation antipsychotics on weight gain, defined as at least a 7% increase in weight from randomization, using a Bayesian hierarchical model network meta-analysis with individual patient level data. Our data consisted of 14 randomized clinical trials contributing 5923 subjects (mean age = 39 [SD = 12]) assessing various combinations of olanzapine (n = 533), paliperidone (n = 3482), risperidone (n= 540), and placebo (n= 1368). The median time from randomization to dropout or trial completion was 6 weeks (range: 0-60 weeks). The unadjusted probability of weight gain in the placebo group was 4.8% across trials. For each 10g chlorpromazine equivalent dose increase in olanzapine, the odds of weight gain increased by 5.0 (95% Credible Interval: 1.4, 5.3); the effect of risperidone (odds ratio = 1.6 [0.25,9.1]) was estimated with considerable uncertainty but was similar to paliperidone (odds ratio = 1.3 [1.2, 1.5]).