Mitigating Pesticide Residues in the Food Supply Chain: A Source-Control-Based Evolutionary Game Model of Stakeholder Interactions

Pesticide residues are significant food contaminants that pose a serious threat to human health and food safety. Promoting the green transformation and upgrading of pesticide enterprises to produce low-residue, green pesticides is crucial for mitigating this threat at its source. While much research focuses on downstream detection and monitoring of residues, this study addresses the upstream challenge of systemic reduction. Based on evolutionary game theory, this study constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model involving pesticide enterprises, farmers, and the government. The model establishes the payoff matrix, derives the replicator dynamic equations for each participant, and theoretically analyzes the evolutionarily stable strategies. Using MATLAB for numerical simulations, we examine the evolutionary paths under varying parameters to assess their influence on system dynamics and outcomes. The results show that: (1) when the benefits of using green pesticides exceed those of traditional pesticides, enterprises choose to transform and upgrade, farmers opt to purchase green pesticides, and the government tends toward a passive stance; (2) the willingness of enterprises to transform is significantly affected by transformation costs, farmers’ returns from green pesticide use, and the additional benefits generated by government promotion; (3) government incentives are more effective than penalties in fostering green behavior among stakeholders, though both excessively high and low subsidies can reduce their willingness. These findings provide a novel, source-control policy framework for ensuring food safety. Policy recommendations include strengthening publicity and education, optimizing subsidy levels, and providing targeted incentives to guide the pesticide industry toward green, high-quality development that inherently reduces the burden of pesticide residues in the food supply.