Study on the Identification of Supplementary Cultivated Land Based on the Markov-FLUS Model and Cultivation Suitability Evaluation Under the New Cultivated Land Occupation and Compensation Balance Policy: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

The identification of supplementary cultivated land resources as a reserve resource is of great significance for ensuring the implementation of the new mechanism of land occupation and compensation balance in China. Jiangsu Province, as a typical case study area, has been taken and the framework of “multi-period land use change patterns – multi-scenario land use simulation – cultivation suitability evaluation – identification of supplementary cultivated land” has been carried out to explore the identification ideas and paths of supplementary cultivated land in this study. Single land use dynamic index and land use transfer matrix are used to analyze the change dynamics, transfer direction and degree of various land types in the four periods of land use data from 2005 to 2020. Based on this, the Markov-FLUS model is used to simulate and predict the land use quantity and its spatial distribution under four scenarios: inertial development scenario, cultivated land protection scenario, economic development priority scenario and ecological protection priority scenario. Sixteen factor indicators were selected from four dimensions of natural land quality, social economy, management and ecological conditions of the land, and the suitability degree of cultivated land in Jiangsu was evaluated by multi-factors stepwise correction. The land use simulation data of the four scenarios in Jiangsu were superimposed with the current land use data in 2023 to identify the plots of land transferred in and out of cultivated land, and combined with the suitability degree, the possible three major categories and eight types of sources for the supplementary cultivated land, totaling 29,015.92km2, have been identified, along with their distribution. A time sequence arrangement for these sources has been initially set up. Corresponding management suggestions have been proposed based on the adaptability of different supplementary cultivated landsources, with the aim of providing scientific references for the acquisition of supplementary cultivated land sources in the implementation of the national and local government’s farmland balance management, and assisting the management departments in making corresponding decisions.