Multi-Model Ensemble Climate Projections for Ontario, Canada

Multi-model ensembles for climate modeling, created by combining seven Global Climate Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM), are assessed at twelve stations, as well as for the entire domain of Ontario, Canada. Two multi-model ensembles were produced, one using the mean of the seven GCM and RCM combinations and the other using the median of the same seven GCM and RCM combinations. Three temperature variables (average surface temperature, maximum surface temperature, and minimum surface temperature) were used to evaluate the performance of the models. Data obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment were compared with gridded data based on observations from the Climactic Research Unit’s TS v4.00 dataset, as well as observed station data from the Digital Archive of Canadian Climatological Data provided by Environment and Climate Change Canada.