Goshawk Habitat Suitability and Forecasting in Utah National Forests (PhD Chapter)

Both state and federal wildlife agencies strive to conserve and protect wildlife and their habitats as an important public resource. Applied management decisions often rely on being able to obtain data that can efficiently and effectively enhance the understanding of these systems for informing management actions. Wildlife managers often focus efforts on a small subset of species from an ecosystem, typically called focal species, who can serve as surrogates for understanding the health and function of the system. Models that consider how these focal species interact with the ecosystem are often used to better understand important aspects of their life history, ecology, and conservation needs. In this study, we consider the northern goshawk, a top-tier avian predator often used as a focal species. We conducted a statewide nest site selection model for northern goshawks in Utah using an analytical hierarchy process. We then used the model in conjunction with the Forest Vegetation Simulator to predict changes to nesting habitat over the next 150 years in Utah under different climate scenarios. Based on consensus between all predictions, we identified potential refugia, especially in the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache and Ashley National Forests, that remains intact as high suitability nesting habitat under all climate scenarios.

州及联邦野生动物管理机构致力于保护和维护野生动物及其栖息地，将其视为一项重要的公共资源。在应用管理决策时，往往依赖于获取能够高效、有效地增强对这些系统理解的数据，从而指导管理行动。野生动物管理者通常专注于生态系统中的一个较小物种子集，通常被称为焦点物种，这些物种可以作为理解系统健康状况和功能的中继。考虑这些焦点物种如何与生态系统互动的模型，常被用于更深入地了解其生命史、生态学特征和保育需求。在本研究中，我们以北方隼（一种顶级鸟类捕食者，常作为焦点物种）为例。我们利用层次分析法在犹他州为北方隼构建了一个全州范围的巢穴选址模型。随后，我们将该模型与森林植被模拟器相结合，预测了在不同气候情景下，未来150年内犹他州巢穴栖息地的变化。基于所有预测的共识，我们确定了潜在的避难所，尤其是在尤尼塔-瓦萨奇-凯奇和艾什利国家公园，这些地区在所有气候情景下均保持为高适宜性巢穴栖息地。