Reactivation of latent infections with migration shapes population-level disease dynamics

Annual migration is common across animal taxa and can dramatically shape the spatial and temporal patterns of infectious disease. Although migration can decrease infection prevalence in some contexts, these energetically costly long-distance movements can also have immunosuppressive effects that may interact with transmission processes in complex ways. Here we develop a mechanistic model for the reactivation of latent infections driven by physiological changes or energetic costs associated with migration (i.e., “migratory relapse”) and its effects on disease dynamics. We determine conditions under which migratory relapse can amplify or reduce infection prevalence across pathogen and host traits (e.g., infectious periods, virulence, overwinter survival, timing of relapse) and transmission phenologies. We show that relapse at either the start or end of migration can dramatically increase prevalence across the annual cycle and may be crucial for maintaining pathogens with low transmissibil...