Replication Data for: When Do Campaign Effects Persist for Years? Evidence from a Natural Experiment

A unique re-vote allows for a natural experiment to evaluate whether campaign effects can last for nearly a decade: A right-wing conservative party missed the 5-percent threshold in a German state by a mere vote in 2007, but the Constitutional Court ordered a re-vote in a single precinct over potential election fraud. After a one-sided campaign focusing on law and order, the party’s vote share increased more than sixfold. By comparing the precinct with its direct surroundings, the study shows that the re-vote campaign had long-lasting effects on vote choice and broader security-sensitive behavior. Residents in the re-vote precinct installed more warning signs on their property to deter burglars. They were not more supportive of right-wing attitudes, but more likely to believe that election fraud reoccurred. Based on habitual-voting and social-norm theories, the study suggests that persuasion could be durable if candidates provide an unchallenged interpretation of political events.