Turning down the heat: vegetation feedbacks limit fire regime responses to global warming

Climate change is projected to dramatically increase boreal wildfire activity, with broad ecological and socio-economic consequences. As global temperatures rise, periods with elevated fire weather are expected to increase in frequency and duration, which would be expected to increase the number and size of fires. Statistical forecasts or simulations of future fire activity often account for direct climatic effects only, neglecting other controls of importance, such as biotic feedbacks. This could result in overestimating the effects of climate change on fire activity, if the future distribution of vegetation or fuels were to change. We incorporated sensitivity to climate or fire weather and vegetation in a fire simulation model, and represented explicitly two key biotic feedbacks linked to succession and regeneration processes. We used this model to forecast annual fire activity from 2011 to 2099 over a large region of boreal forest in Québec, Canada, dominated by balsam fir (Abies bal...