Data from: Integrated modeling predicts shifts in waterbird population dynamics under climate change

Climate change has been identified as one of the most important drivers of
wildlife population dynamics. The in-depth knowledge of the complex
relationships between climate and population sizes through density
dependent demographic processes is important for understanding and
predicting population shifts under climate change, which requires
integrated population models (IPMs) that unify the analyses of demography
and abundance data. In this study we developed an IPM based on Gaussian
approximation to dynamic N-mixture models for large scale population data.
We then analyzed four decades (1972-2013) of Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos)
breeding population survey, band-recovery, and climate data covering a
large spatial extent from North American prairies through boreal habitat
to Alaska. We aimed to test the hypothesis that climate change will cause
shifts in population dynamics if climatic effects on demographic
parameters that have substantial contribution to population growth vary
spatially. More specifically, we examined the spatial variation of
climatic effects on density dependent population demography, identified
the key demographic parameters that are influential to population growth,
and forecasted population responses to climate change. Our results
revealed that recruitment, which explained more variance of population
growth than survival, was sensitive to the temporal variation of
precipitation in the southern portion of the study area but not in the
north. Survival, by contrast, was insensitive to climatic variation. We
then forecasted a decrease in Mallard breeding population density in the
south and an increase in the northwestern portion of the study area,
indicating potential shifts in population dynamics under future climate
change. Our results implied that different strategies need to be
considered across regions to conserve waterfowl populations in the face of
climate change. Our modelling approach can be adapted for other species
and thus has wide application to understanding and predicting population
dynamics in the presence of global change.