Hydrologic Scenarios at Lake Mead: Implications for Salton Sea Restoration and Management Plans for the Imperial Irrigation District

This HydroShare resource presents an integrated hydrologic analysis of future inflow scenarios to Lake Mead and their downstream implications for Salton Sea restoration efforts and water management strategies by the Imperial Irrigation District (IID). Three inflow scenarios, severe drought, moderate drought, and baseline/normal conditions, are developed based on historical records, regulated outflows from Lake Powell, and anticipated variability under climate stressors. Using Python-based statistical methods and time-series analysis, we assess year-to-year inflow variability, average annual flow trends, and potential deficits in water delivery commitments.

The study aims to inform adaptive management by exploring how upstream inflow variability to Lake Mead could cascade through the Colorado River system, affecting water availability for the IID and restoration inflows to the Salton Sea. Key performance indicators such as annual water delivery volumes, deviation from QSA thresholds, and potential for conservation transfers are evaluated under each scenario.

All code, datasets, and analytical scripts used in this study are included in this resource to ensure full reproducibility and transparency for stakeholders and researchers. The resource provides a framework that can be updated with new data or adapted for scenario planning in other parts of the Colorado River Basin.