Trajectory modeling of gestational weight: A functional principal component analysis approach

Suboptimal gestational weight gain (GWG), which is linked to increased risk of adverse outcomes for a pregnant woman and her infant, is prevalent. In the study of a large cohort of Canadian pregnant women, our goals are to estimate the individual weight growth trajectory using sparsely collected bodyweight data, and to identify the factors affecting the weight change during pregnancy, such as prepregnancy body mass index (BMI), dietary intakes and physical activity. The first goal was achieved through functional principal component analysis (FPCA) by conditional expectation. For the second goal, we used linear regression with the total weight gain as the response variable. The trajectory modeling through FPCA had a significantly smaller root mean square error (RMSE) and improved adaptability than the classic nonlinear mixed-effect models, demonstrating a novel tool that can be used to facilitate real time monitoring and interventions of GWG. Our regression analysis showed that prepregnancy BMI had a high predictive value for the weight changes during pregnancy, which agrees with the published weight gain guideline.