HOW DOES INFLATION GROWTH AFFECT HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION? AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS WITH EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN

This study investigates the impact of inflation on household educational expenditures in Uzbekistan using panel data covering 14 regions over the period 2010–2023. Employing an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model supplemented by Fixed Effects estimation, Johansen cointegration, and Granger causality tests, the findings confirm a statistically significant negative relationship between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and real household spending on education. Results indicate that a one-percentage-point rise in inflation reduces monthly household education expenditure by approximately 18,320 UZS on average, with the effect being 3.2 times larger among low-income households than among middle- and high-income groups. The paper concludes with evidence-based policy recommendations aimed at mitigating inflationary pressures on educational access and equity.